Obama news conference Wednesday

WASHINGTON -- President Barack Obama will address the election results with a news conference Wednesday afternoon at the White House, where he is expected to call for both parties to put aside the vitriol of the past several months and work together to restore the nation's economy.

The president spent Election Day in the White House, closing out the campaign season with a last-minute flurry of radio interviews on stations in selected urban markets, including Chicago, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Jacksonville. On a Las Vegas station, he made a direct appeal to Latinos.

He is scheduled to leave Washington on Friday for a nine-day trip to India, Indonesia, South Korea and Japan, and aides would like to get the election behind him so that he would not be dogged by domestic concerns while overseas.

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Rivera, Garcia forage for votes

More than 100 miles from their homes, Republican David Rivera and Democrat Joe Garcia waded for votes over the weekend in what seems like an unlikely locale for a Miami congressional election: the annual, ``world famous'' swamp buggy races in Naples.

It seemed the appropriate setting for what has been an ugly battle for Florida's 25th Congressional District -- a race largely played out in television attack ads.

But Garcia, a former Obama administration official, and Rivera, a four-term state representative, spent the final days of early voting appealing in person to their political bases -- groups that will be crucial in determining who replaces Republican Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart in Washington.

For Rivera, that meant two days rallying conservatives in Naples, who make up about 10 percent of the voters in the GOP-leaning district that stretches from West Miami-Dade into Collier County.

``2day is the big day,'' Rivera told a Miami Herald reporter in a text message Sunday. ``Swamp buggy queen gets thrown in the swamp.''

For Garcia, the trek to Naples on Saturday was an effort to reach out to independent voters, who make up a sizable chunk of the district. He spent Sunday looking for votes among two key Democratic constituencies: African Americans and non-Cuban Hispanics.

``Did I get lucky and get your vote?'' Garcia asked outside the West Kendall Regional Library.

POSSIBLE PICKUP?

Trying to capitalize on one of their few pickup opportunities in a year when they are widely expected to lose control of the House, Democrats poured money into backing Garcia and attacking Rivera.

``Though most people aren't talking about it, it's one of the few Democratic opportunities,'' said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the Washington-based Rothenberg Political Report, who called the race ``extremely competitive.''

Yet, despite a slew of TV and radio ads accusing him of ``a pattern of lies and cover-ups,'' Rivera can keep the district in GOP hands if independents -- who make up about one-third of the district's likely voters -- break for Republicans in a year of widespread public anger toward Washington politicians.

Few polls have been carried out in the district. One by Sunshine State News, a conservative-leaning publication, had Rivera 1 percentage point ahead of Garcia -- a statistical tie -- with 5 percent of voters undecided. Rivera, however, had a wider, 7-point lead among ``the most likely voters.''

A New York Times analysis of the contest based on polls, expert forecasts, fundraising, past election returns and other indicators gave the edge Sunday to Rivera by about 5 percentage points.

Rivera raised about $1.7 million for his campaign; Garcia about $1.4 million through Oct. 13. Garcia had more cash on hand for the home stretch -- though both candidates have received additional donations in the past few days.

The close race might be decided by turnout: If GOP voters come out as enthusiastically as they did in the August primary, when almost twice as many Republican voters than Democrats cast ballots in the district, the results would almost certainly swing in Rivera's favor.

To counter some of that fervor, Garcia, with deep-pocketed help from national Democrats, has launched character attacks against his opponent. News reports have questioned Rivera's income outside of lawmaking and an accident he was involved in on the Palmetto Expressway during his first campaign eight years ago.

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Amendments appear doomed come Election Day, poll shows

TALLAHASSEE -- Every major constitutional amendment on the ballot looks doomed and so do each of the three Democrats running for Florida's Cabinet, according to a new poll of likely Florida voters.

In another sign of the rightward shift of the electorate, this Mason-Dixon Polling & Research Survey shows independents are throwing crucial support behind the GOP candidates.

So Pam Bondi will likely be the next attorney general, Jeff Atwater will likely be the next chief financial officer and Adam Putnam will win the race for agriculture commissioner.

But in a year of anti-incumbency and political shakeups, the poll also shows that the status quo will be preserved when it comes to the Constitutional amendments seeking to change the way politicians draw political districts, manage growth in local communities or pay to reduce class sizes.

The biggest eye-opener: The so-called ``Hometown Democracy'' amendment that would allow citizens to vote on changes to local growth plans. More than a month ago, a majority of voters favored the amendment. Now they oppose it 58-26.

``Support for Amendment 4 has totally collapsed in the face of a strong advertising campaign by the measure's opponents,'' Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker said. ``By almost owning the airwaves, opponents have effectively flipped the numbers.''

Detractors, heavily financed by developers, describe Hometown Democracy as a job-killing idea. Supporters say they want more local citizen control -- and less developer influence -- over City and County Hall.

Two other proposed constitutional amendments --the so-called called ``Fair Districts'' plan -- would also tie the hands of politicians. The amendments would prevent state legislators from favoring or disfavoring incumbents or political parties when they redraw congressional and legislative seats after the census.

Funded by liberal millionaires and Democratic-leaning unions, the Fair Districts plan directly challenges the power of the Republican-led Legislature. Republicans are the only bloc of voters who oppose the measures.

Independents - and especially Democrats -- favor the two amendments by double digits.

Amendment 5, concerning legislative districts, is favored by 48 percent of likely voters and opposed by 32 percent. Amendment 6, concerning congressional districts, is favored by 46 percent and opposed by 27 percent of voters. But that's probably not enough support to garner the 60 percent of the vote needed to pass a Constitutional amendment by Election Day.

The third major constitutional amendment, concerning scaling back a class-size limitation, won't pass, either, even though it garners a narrow plurality of the vote: 45 percent. About 43 percent oppose it.

That's a big shift since September, when the last Mason-Dixon poll showed 53 percent were opposed.

The Cabinet races are a little more consistent. Republicans have steadily locked up support for months amid a conservative awaken and voter anger over the direction of the nation under Democratic control.

The poll shows:

• Bondi is ahead of Miami Beach state Sen. Dan Gelber, 44-37.

• Atwater, the outgoing senate president, leads former Tallahassee Rep. Loranne Ausley. 39-28.

• Putnam leads former Democratic party boss Scott Maddox, 44-33.

Marc Caputo can be reached at mcaputo@MiamiHerald.com

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Razor-close governor's race triggers fears of recount

TALLAHASSEE -- Like most Florida elections officials, Pasco County Supervisor of Elections Brian Corley dreads a close and confusing vote, so he'll seek help from a higher power Tuesday.

Corley plans to gather his poll workers for the ``Election Day prayer,'' a nondenominational request for high turnouts and smooth-running voting machines. The final request: ``Please, whoever wins, let it be by a wide margin because we don't want to have a recount.''

A decade after hanging chads, butterfly ballots, manual recounts and proof of ``voter intent'' made Florida the epicenter of electoral chaos, Corley and other Florida election officials are bracing for Tuesday's election.

They see polls predicting a razor-close contest for governor between Republican Rick Scott and Democrat Alex Sink. And if the result is within one-half of a percentage point, it will trigger a statewide recount and revive memories of the 2000 presidential election that wouldn't end.

Several experts with knowledge of changes to state election laws say a recount this time would work much better, in part because those paper ballots have given way to electronic touch screen machines and optical scan ballots marked by a voter's hand.

``I think it will go smoother, certainly, because of the experiences of 2000,'' said Ron Meyer, an election-law expert and Sink adviser.

Both sides have ``lawyered up'' in case problems arise. Meyer will be at Sink's headquarters in Tampa on Tuesday, overseeing a network of stand-by volunteer lawyers stationed in most counties. Scott has a legal team in place as well, including former state GOP chairman Al Cardenas of Miami and Tallahassee lawyer Hayden Dempsey.

Under state law, the secretary of state will order a machine recount if the margin of victory is within one-half of 1 percent, or fewer than 24,000 votes in the 2006 governor's race in which then-Republican Charlie Crist defeated Democrat Jim Davis. County election officials would re-feed ballots through counting machines to double-check results.

If the result is still within a quarter of a percent, or fewer than 12,000 votes in 2006, a manual recount will be ordered, triggering a review of so-called ``undervotes'' and ``overvotes.''

For example, if a voter accidentally marks two ovals in one race but clearly writes ``not this one'' next to an oval, that vote likely would count under the recount. But the vote might not count if the voter makes a check mark in one oval and the mark extends into another oval.

After the two recounts, results would be certified Nov. 16. Legal challenges would be due 10 days later.

Both recounts would end if the number of contested ballots is not high enough to alter the outcome, or if the losing candidate concedes to the opponent.

Florida won't see a repeat of 2000's notoriously misaligned butterfly ballot. Used in Palm Beach County, it had a different alignment than sample ballots mailed to voters and resulted in a surge of votes for independent Pat Buchanan, whose name appeared to be where Democrat Al Gore's was supposed to be.

Because of the confusion, Meyer said the campaigns were ``caught flat-footed'' and began ``parachuting lawyers into Palm Beach.''

With optical scan ballots -- pushed by Gov. Crist and former Democratic U.S. Rep. Robert Wexler of Boca Raton -- there's less of a chance that the ballot itself will cause a problem. The ovals are clearly lined up next to each candidate's name. And since voters are darkening ovals and not punching them, ``hanging chads'' will remain in the lore that made ``Flori-duh'' an embarrassing part ofthe national political lexicon.

New this year are other important changes. The secretary of state can begin recount proceedings without waiting for direction from the governor, and legal challenges to a statewide race will be filed in one place -- Tallahassee -- to avoid the legal and political chaos of lawsuits popping up all over.

But even if a recount works more smoothly, Florida's election procedure isn't without critics.

Corley of Pasco County said officials learned a lot from 2000. But he said the examination of voter intent on irregular ballots is an invitation to more lawsuits. ``From voter intent perspective, we've almost come full circle,'' Corley said.

Added Leon County elections supervisor Ion Sancho: ``We theoretically have a better system, but we still have more work to do.''

Sancho said automatic recounts simply run the ballots through the same machines as before, but don't check the accuracy of the machines themselves. He said officials don't have to check each ballot but could examine a statistically significant sample to look for errors.

Dan McCrea of the Florida Voters Foundation, a voter advocacy group that pushed for the switch to paper ballots, said the state should require more post-election audits of voting equipment.

``What Florida has done since the embarrassment of 2000 is protect itself from further embarrassment, instead of concentrating on conducting better elections,'' he said.

Lee Logan can be reached at llogan@sptimes.com or (850) 224-7263.

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Rick Scott's spending hits $73M

Republican Rick Scott gave his campaign another $11.6 million in the final 12 days, bringing his total personal spending to more than $73 million and making this far and away the most expensive governor's race in history.

The record-shattering investment put an exclamation point on Florida's topsy-turvy election cycle as candidates fanned out across the state Saturday for their final sprint before Tuesday.

``I believe in what I'm doing. I believe this is the right purpose. I think we need to start standing up and save the state and save the country,'' Scott said of his spending as he chartered a twin-engine turboprop plane to ferry him to four major media markets. ``I've been blessed, and so I made a big commitment.''

In a reminder of how the Naples businessman has transformed from the outsider candidate shunned as unfit for office to Mr. Establishment, Scott was joined at campaign stops by former Gov. Jeb Bush in Orlando and Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, head of the Republican Governors Association, in Riverview.

Newly released campaign finance reports show that the RGA pumped $6.5 million into the state GOP between late August and Oct. 28 -- by far the single-biggest donor for a period where the party raised about $31.5 million. Other major donors included U.S. Sugar ($1.7 million), BlueCross Blue Shield ($910,000), paving giant Anderson-Columbia and its retired president ($655,000), and the Seminole Tribe ($550,000), which has gaming interests.

Donor after donor -- including the Florida Chamber and U.S. Sugar and committees controlled by top legislators -- are pouring money into the Republican Party. These same groups had spent millions into attack ads painting Scott as a virtual crook in his Republican primary against Bill McCollum. But now the groups are spending millions to help the state GOP attack Democrat Alex Sink's fitness for office.

VERY SKILLED

Sink has proven to be the most successful fundraiser Florida Democrats have ever seen, though the $11.2 million she raised over the campaign is less than what Scott spent in the last 12 days. But with Sink at the top of the ticket, the state Democratic party had its best fundraising quarter ever, matching the $31.5 million raised by the Republican party.

The Democratic Governors Association was the largest contributor, steering $6.3 million to a political committee set up by Tallahassee lawyer Mark Herron, named MARK pac. Lawyers and labor unions are the next top donors, contributing $3.9 million and $1.7 million respectively, according to the reports.

MARK pac also raised $2.8 million from the Florida teachers union and its national partner, the National Education Association, and collected $450,000 from Emily's List, the organization that promotes liberal-leaning women candidates.

Sink spent Saturday afternoon greeting tailgating crowds at Florida A&M's homecoming game. Dressed in an orange golf shirt, Sink was given royalty status as she worked the crowd.

``I feel a big, big momentum for this week in early voting and also for Tuesday,'' she said. ``People are very committed and excited.''

State Sen. Al Lawson, a Tallahassee Democrat, said he believes Scott's money blitz is making people more cynical about politicians.

``Everybody believes you can buy it if you have enough money,'' he said. ``It's turning people off. They know the election is not about them, it's about who is selling power and who is buying it.''

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Charlie Crist sends Florida politics on a wild ride

Look what you've wrought, Charlie Crist.

Since that casual May 2009 e-mail announcing your candidacy for U.S. Senate, you've ripped apart the Florida GOP, and now it's dividing Florida Democrats. You've gone from national superstar and future presidential contender to someone banished from your lifelong party and fighting for political survival.

Not to mention the trickle-down effect: Republican fixture Bill McCollum, poised to breeze into a second term as attorney general, is now through in politics; probably so is your lieutenant governor, Jeff Kottkamp; Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink, the state Democratic Party's great hope, skipped reelection and is locked in an ugly, neck-and-neck race for governor against a controversial businessman no one had heard of nine months ago.

Amid the flood of nasty TV spots, robo calls and mailers, it's worth pausing at the close of the craziest election cycle in modern Florida history to review where we've landed after an 18-month political roller coaster.

Mix the worst economy in decades, a president whose policies have evoked strong feelings pro and con, and a mutinous electorate with America's biggest battleground state and you wind up with a you-can't-make-this-stuff-up election:

• A billionaire yachter and political rookie threatening to snatch the Democratic Senate nomination but falling short.

• GOP leaders trashing a multimillionaire gubernatorial candidate and political rookie as a crook in the primary and then embracing him as their nominee.

• Florida's once invincible governor dropping from the GOP, running for Senate as an independent, and ultimately trying to get Democratic icon Bill Clinton to nudge Kendrick Meek out of the race.

``Who could have come up with this scenario two years ago?'' said Quinnipiac University pollster Peter Brown. ``If Charlie Crist had just run for governor, it's likely he would not even be challenged for re-election.''

CRIST'S CHOICE

Crist's decision to run for Senate set in motion a scramble that left every statewide office open in 2010. That would have been chaotic enough, but it occurred amid a horrific economy and a president passing sweeping and controversial measures from the stimulus package to health care.

``Clearly the failure of Barack Obama's administration to turn around this economy has affected the fates of both Republicans and Democrats alike,'' said University of Florida political scientist Daniel Smith. ``It's amazing all these people who all had bright political futures and are now on the verge of the political wasteland.''

Indeed, Meek started running for Senate when Democrats were still basking in the popularity of Obama. Now he's running a distant third and repeatedly denying rumors he's poised to quit.

Crist, badly overestimating the hunger for bipartisanship, literally embraced Obama and his stimulus package, and saw the bottom fall out from his support. He has gone from a Republican star to nonpartisan underdog.

OUT OF NOWHERE

And when this all started, Marco Rubio was a hopeless dreamer taking on the leader of his party and Florida's most popular politician. Now he's set to become Florida's next U.S. senator and almost certain to be a 2012 vice presidential contender. With uncompromising conservatism, Rubio proved to be the perfect candidate at the perfect time.

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Inner circles help direct Scott, Sink campaigns

TALLAHASSEE -- When Democrat Alex Sink fired Miami lobbyist Brian May from her campaign Monday for delivering a message in the midst of her last debate, she lost one of her campaign's top political advisors and her temper.

As the drama unfolded Tuesday, with Sink offering conflicting answers and her campaign in overdrive, the blunder became a gift-wrapped package for her Republican rival Rick Scott.

Scott spent the first day out of the fray, saying he was surprised by the incident, then let his advisors exploit the gaffe. They cranked out press releases, forwarded video and transcripts to reporters, cut a new radio ad, and went for the jugular, portraying Sink as a cheater, and her explanation a lie.

The incident crystallized the relationship Florida's candidates for governor have with their inner circle of advisors. Sink relies on longtime friends and colleagues but is also quick to dress down someone when a mistake is made, while Scott entrusts his fate to an experienced campaign staff he assembled just six months ago.

``I've always believed that you hire the best people you can, check out all that you can, then you follow your gut,'' Scott said.

Sink and Scott each rely on a small inner circle of advisors for campaign and political advice.

Sink, Florida's chief financial officer, confides closely with her husband, Bill McBride, her longtime chief of staff Jim Cassady, and a small group of female friends that includes former education commissioner Betty Castor. For political advice, Sink listens to the young aides she has assembled as part of her campaign team but, while she welcomes their advice, she doesn't always do as they recommend.

Scott, who has never before run for public office, keeps a close circle of advisors that includes his wife, Anne, and longtime friend and Washington lawyer, Enu Mainigi. But most of the political shots are being called by political campaign veterans that include Washington pollster and strategist Tony Fabrizio, who has imbued in the campaign the mantra that they are running a different kind of campaign.

That difference is evident in the sheer size of Scott's political machine, financed mostly with Scott's own money -- more than $60 million, so far.

Scott's weeklong bus tour of the state that began Tuesday includes Scott and three family members, lieutenant governor candidate Jennifer Carroll, 15 staffers, a luxury motorcoach, a press van, an advance car, and two cars with support staff.

Sink, by contrast, has raised $15.4 million in cash and in-kind support, and is dependent on the Florida Democratic Party to finance much of her television ads. She travels with four to six staff members, and her campaign is not underwriting a press van until the last two days.

This is the second time Sink has run for public office. She was elected state chief financial officer in 2006. But she was intimately involved in her husband's unsuccessful gubernatorial bid in 2002 when he ran against incumbent Gov. Jeb Bush.

She says the most difficult thing about running for office is running the gauntlet of politics, and she has learned to become better at it by asking questions, listening to her advisors then, ultimately, making decisions on her own.

``I didn't run for CFO to be a political person, I ran to make things work better,'' she said.

Scott says he likes to surround himself with people who share his goals but come from different backgrounds. ``I have a no-jerk rule,'' he said. ``You can disagree without being disagreeable.''

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