Rick Scott's rise puts Bill McCollum in danger

TALLAHASSEE -- Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum's once-certain path to the Republican nomination for governor is in trouble, with supporters for the first time voicing anxiety about his chances and questioning his strategy.

Trailing newcomer Rick Scott by 13 points in a recent statewide poll and unable to match the millions of dollars Scott has spent on television ads, McCollum looks vulnerable. It is a stunning shift for a seasoned politician who seemed to have a lock on the race just two months ago.

Supporters fault McCollum's TV message, his inability to connect with an angry electorate, fundraising shortcomings and a dated campaign style, emphasizing endorsements from establishment figures such as Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney at a time when voters feel alienated.

In an interview, McCollum acknowledged ``angst'' among his supporters but predicted he would triumph as the only ``battle-tested'' Republican running for governor.

``The person who has a record for everybody to see is going to be there,'' McCollum said. ``On the other hand, there's a fellow [Scott] that people don't know who he is, and when they find out who he is, it's not going to be a pretty picture.''

But McCollum has some convincing to do in his own camp.

``To put it in marketing terms, McCollum's brand is not well-identified despite a long career of service to Florida,'' said Greg Truax, a Tampa grass-roots volunteer who has donated to McCollum's campaign. ``Gen. McCollum needs to communicate the fundamental points of difference with Rick Scott.''

A potentially big threat is that some Republicans perceive Scott as more conservative, especially on immigration.

``That is a hot-button issue for Republican voters,'' Truax said. ``He's combined an effective message with a tremendous amount of money.''

Scott's TV ads, in which the candidate talks straight into the camera, appear sharper and more engaging than McCollum's, said Truax. The activist suggested McCollum move his campaign operation to Orlando to get away from the ``echo chamber'' of Tallahassee insiders.

McCollum and two committees with ties to his campaign are counter-punching with anti-Scott TV ads emphasizing the $1.7 billion Medicare-fraud fine stemming from Scott's tenure as CEO of Columbia/HCA.

At the same time, Scott is challenging McCollum to take part in four debates.

Another concern is fundraising. Scott's polling advantage could make it harder for McCollum to raise money at a key juncture in the campaign, with the Aug. 24 primary 10 weeks away.

If McCollum can't close that gap in a hurry, ``All of the traditional donors will have to start looking at what they have been doing,'' said Steve Madden, a lobbyist who serves on McCollum's statewide finance team. ``You have to start looking at who has the most potential viability to win. . . . The majority of voters want to be with the winner -- that's our core personality trait.''

McCollum, 65, raised almost $5 million through March. Scott has already spent an estimated $15 million of his personal fortune. If he exceeds $19.7 million, Florida's public campaign financing system will match for McCollum every dollar Scott spends over the cap.

``We're waiting, and have waited, to spend our resources, which are much more limited,'' McCollum said.

Lobbyist and strategist J.M. ``Mac'' Stipanovich, who helped mastermind Republican Bob Martinez's winning campaign for governor in 1986, marveled at the ``nerve'' of Scott to have ``scammed the taxpayers'' while in business and now ``taking that money and trying to scam them again.''

McCollum says he’ll use taxpayer funds to compete with Scott