GOP Senate candidates lead in 3 battleground states

WASHINGTON -- Republicans are positioned to take Senate seats away from Democrats in three battleground states in widely different regions of the country, according to new McClatchy Newspapers-Marist polls in Colorado, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

In Colorado, Republican Ken Buck leads incumbent Sen. Michael Bennet by 50 percent to 42 percent among likely voters.

In Pennsylvania, Republican Pat Toomey leads Democrat Joe Sestak by 51 percent to 42 percent.

In Wisconsin, Republican Ron Johnson leads Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold by 52 percent to 45 percent.

In each state, Republicans are benefiting from an enthusiasm gap, where their supporters are much more eager to turn out and vote on Nov. 2. In Colorado, for example, the Democrat leads 41 percent to 40 percent among registered voters. However, the contest flips among those most likely to vote, who give the Republican an 8-point lead.

"We define likely voters as registered voters who report they have an excellent or good chance of voting in November and express a high to moderate degree of interest in the elections," said Lee M. Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion at Marist College in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., which conducted the polls.

Among the factors driving these results: Voters are either split over prospects for the economy or downright pessimistic, and they don't approve of President Barack Obama. In Pennsylvania, for example, 41 percent of likely voters approve of Obama's job performance; 54 percent disapprove.

Obama won all three states in 2008, each by 9 points or more.

The three states are critical to Republicans' chances of gaining the 10 seats they need to seize control of the Senate, where Democrats currently command a 59-41 majority. "They are all leaning Republican right now," Miringoff said.

Democrats might cut the enthusiasm gap, he said, if they could generate more excitement among their voters or dampen the energy on the Republican side.

"The Republicans haven't closed the sale. But there's not many shopping days left for the Democrats," Miringoff said.

COLORADO

In Colorado, likely voters are in a sour mood.

They think the worst is yet to come for the economy by a margin of 49 percent to 41 percent. That anxiety is worst among those making less than $50,000 a year, a group that usually favors Democrats.

Just 39 percent of likely voters approve of Obama's job performance, while 56 percent disapprove, his worst margin in the three states. While that score is tilted a bit by 93 percent disapproval among Republicans, even 54 percent of the state's independents, a key voting bloc, disapprove of the president.

Combined, those forces help explain why 56 percent of conservatives are very enthusiastic about voting, while 36 percent of liberals and 35 percent of moderates say they're very enthusiastic.

The most enthusiastic bloc in the state: tea party supporters. Two out of three are eager to vote, and they support Buck, the Republican, by a margin of 85 percent to 8 percent.

One bright spot for Democrats in Colorado: The poll found Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper leading the three-way race for governor, with 48 percent of the vote. Tom Tancredo, a former Republican running as a third-party candidate, had 29 percent, and Republican Dan Maes had 19 percent.

PENNSYLVANIA

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