New START treaty salvages U.S. 'reset' with Russia, experts say

WASHINGTON -- Senate approval Wednesday of a nuclear arms reduction pact with Russia has boosted President Barack Obama's long-shot initiative to rid the world of nuclear weapons and salvaged his drive to improve U.S.-Russian ties, experts said.

Fulfilling his call for a "reset" of the chilly relationship with Moscow, Obama's victory could also help in two U.S.-led initiatives that rely on Russian cooperation - to curb Iran's nuclear program and to prevent terrorists from stealing nuclear materials.

There are obstacles to accords in any of these areas, but Obama can pursue them with an enhanced image for himself and his government.

"There is a bigger audience out there. If we hadn't done this with the Russians, Obama looks impotent and the United States looks more uncertain, unpredictable and untrustworthy to the rest of the world," said Tom Fingar, who served until last year as chairman of the National Intelligence Council, which prepares presidential intelligence assessments.

Experts across the spectrum expressed relief, if not euphoria.

"It's a modest but useful agreement," said Stephen J. Hadley, the national security adviser in President George W. Bush's second term. "I think the biggest thing is that it avoids some downsides if it had been actually rejected by the Senate."

Foreign Relations Committee Chairman John Kerry, D-Mass., who steered the pact through the Senate, said the 71-26 approval of New START "makes a statement about the United States of America as a whole, not just the president. It says we're a country in which, even in contentious times, where 100 senators have a responsibility, 71 of them came together ... and articulated the direction the U.S. wants to go with respect to nuclear weapons. That's going to be critical in shaping opinion on a global basis."

Obama's ambitious agenda still faces potential landmines.

It will be much harder for Washington and Moscow to reach agreement on cutting their arsenals to levels lower than those imposed by New START on operational warheads and delivery vehicles. The pact limits the sides to deploying no more than 1,550 strategic warheads on 700 bombers and land- and sea-based ballistic missiles within seven years.

Moreover, renewed frictions could arise over the Kremlin's growing authoritarian rule, repression of opposition parties, independent media and human rights activists, and its foot-dragging on legal and financial overhauls sought by international companies.

"Suppose there was a swing toward rabid nationalism in Russia. I think the comfort level over further (nuclear arms) reductions would be much less," said Zbigniew Brzezinski, the national security adviser to former President Jimmy Carter.

There also are unresolved disputes dividing Washington and Moscow, like Obama's plan to deploy missile defenses in Europe, which Moscow worries could be used to neutralize its nuclear deterrent.

Obama won 13 Republican votes Wednesday, but a narrower Democratic majority in the Senate next year will make it harder to gain the two-thirds majority needed for his next arms control priority: the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty outlawing underground nuclear test blasts.

"The test ban treaty in the current atmosphere, in the current context, is a very, very difficult process," Kerry said. "A whole lot of educating has to go on. ... It's way too early to begin to second guess or start to scope out what's going to (happen)."

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